Overview

EUA prices traded with a firm upward bias, extending the recovery seen earlier in June and finishing the week close to recent highs. The December 2026 EUA futures contract was supported by improving market sentiment after geopolitical concerns around the Strait of Hormuz began to ease without causing major disruption to energy supplies. Although oil and natural gas prices retreated as fears of prolonged supply interruptions diminished, the carbon market remained resilient, suggesting that EUA prices were increasingly being driven by structural rather than short-term energy factors.

Overall, the week demonstrated that EUA prices are becoming less dependent on day-to-day movements in energy markets and more influenced by the tightening fundamentals of the EU ETS. While geopolitical developments remained an important source of volatility, the market's resilience reflected confidence that progressively scarcer allowance supply will continue to support carbon prices in the months ahead