Overview

Last week, EUA futures prices recorded a firm upward trend, reflecting improving sentiment across the European carbon market. The benchmark December 2026 EUA futures contract rose by just over 5% during the week, with prices moving from €76.58 per tonne on Monday’s open, to approximately €79.4 per tonne by Friday. Auction prices also strengthened, increasing to about €80.58 per tonne, indicating consistent demand from compliance buyers and financial participants. The rally was supported by a combination of stronger energy markets, expectations of tighter allowance supply, and renewed investor confidence following an increase in Hormuz transits and the easing oil price.

The recovery in EUA futures in recent weeks has built expectations that prices will remain close to the €80 per tonne level, providing that energy markets remain stable, and no further ETS reform pronouncements are made ahead of the summer trading period.