Overview

The relentless rally in EUAs finally stalled this week. Prices pushed to highs just shy of €94 before sharply reversing, falling to the mid-€83s amid a wave of short selling that drove daily trading volumes to more than three times the year-to-date average. The correction was widely anticipated: EUAs had been trading deep in overbought territory for several sessions, with all the classic technical indicators flashing red. However, it was comments from. Donald Trump that ultimately triggered the retreat, unsettling risk sentiment and dragging European equity markets lower in tandem.

That said, EUAs now appear to be resuming their upward trend, broadly consistent with the trajectory observed since April 2025. A significant cold spell forecast across Eastern Europe, combined with a spike in Henry Hub prices and operational constraints that have effectively lowered production capabilities in the USA, has driven European gas prices sharply higher. More bullish news for the EUA market…