Overview

Readers will have done well to miss the New Year fracas surrounding Donald Trump’s intervention in Venezuela. Early January saw U.S. authorities seize Venezuela-linked tankers, including a Russian-flagged vessel, in a highly visible enforcement of sanctions targeting crude exports from Venezuela.

Despite these headline-grabbing developments, European gas and carbon markets have remained notably resilient. TTF has edged modestly higher from November lows, currently trading around €27.95/MWh, but overall price action remains subdued. EUAs, by contrast, have continued a steady upward grind, with the front-December benchmark pushing into the €88.60s. The resumption of auctions on 7th January did little to satisfy demand. The divergence underlines a clear decoupling, with EUAs increasingly driven by structural compliance demand rather than hydrocarbons.