Overview

Overview

After an unusual stable Monday following the strikes on Iran, the carbon market finally followed the gas market in a surge during the Tuesday, with a €3.5 jump shortly after opening. As Trump then pledged to insure and escort vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring the “FREE FLOR of ENERGY to the WORLD”, EUAs rapidly dropped down again. The rest of the week continued to see an unusual stable carbon market, with Friday trading in the high €71s during the midday before again dropping down, to the somewhat comfortable level of €70 before the weekend.

While carbon closed the week 2.72% higher than where it opened, it is clear that the pressure from some European countries demanding a reform and/or a suspension of the EU ETS is putting pressure on the price that otherwise fundamentally should be more bullish. Combined with geopolitics and an unclear end to Iran, the carbon market does not have a clear direction.