Overview

Compliance carbon lost some ground last week as the market took stock of the recent bullish buying patterns and focused on upcoming options expiries in December. Buyers have been more than happy to propel EUAs into the €80s as lower auction volumes and lower energy prices have become priced-in and analysts have raised their forecast prices for 2026; but last week support levels at €81.50 on the December 25 futures contract were repeatedly tested. price

This week will see December EUA options expire and the positions signaling a market price between €80 and €85. Auctions closing for Christmas on the 15th December should support the market after that date, but trading volumes do start to wind down during this period and into January 2026.