Overview

EUAs recovered after tumbling more than €3 on Tuesday last week, closing almost exactly where they had started, with just a -0.1% weekly change. The €80 level continues to act as a high-water mark — perhaps a psychological ceiling — as prices haven’t held above €80 since February, and then only briefly. In fact, prices have only breached €80 twice since the start of 2024. As we head into winter, the question is whether demand will push EUAs back into their 2023 range. Investment funds appear to be positioning for it: total net length now exceeds 90 MtCO₂, the highest level since 2021. However, with Trump rattling the IMO’s cage so hard they backed down on their environmental ambitions, will the EU ETS remain resilient?