Overview

Dec-26 EUA futures spent last week consolidating after touching a nine-month intraday peak of €88.53 the previous Monday (Sep 14). The contract opened at €86.89, drifted lower through Tuesday and Wednesday on thin two-way trade, then rebounded Thursday (+1.10% to €86.96) as compliance buying ahead of a spot allowance expiry lifted the market, before easing slightly into Friday's close. Net-net, the week was essentially flat (-0.13%), with price holding well above the August 82–83 range but making no fresh headway beyond the prior week's highs.

Carbon moved with noticeably less volatility than the energy complex this week. Dutch TTF gas jumped 4.3% on declining Norwegian pipeline flows and tightening winter storage, and UK/European power prices pushed sharply higher, yet EUAs barely budged — a sign the market was digesting last week's rapid move to nine-month highs and was focused on this week’s compliance deadline.