Overview

EUA (Dec-26) prices broke higher earlier last week, jumping 2.89% on Monday to an intraday high of €88.53/t — the highest print in the roughly nine weeks. The move tracked a sharp spike in Dutch TTF gas, which jumped to an intraday high of €83.78/MWh on Middle East-linked LNG supply concerns, reviving the carbon-gas correlation that had weakened over the summer. Carbon then gave back part of the gain Tuesday–Wednesday as gas retreated. EUA proved more resilient than gas into the back half of last week: while TTF gas slid to a weekly low of €75.71 midweek and closed Friday only marginally above last week's close (down ~4.8% from Monday's open), EUA rebuilt losses Thursday–Friday to settle at €86.89/t, up +1.44% for the week (open-to-close).

Carbon prices, however, are now irrelevant for compliance as there is only a week left ahead of the surrendering deadline and some shipping companies are still scrambling to effect last minute transfers to compliance accounts. EUA prices may have built during the last 4 weeks, but the gain is small compared to the circa €100/EUA penalty for non-compliance.