Overview

EUA prices spent the week probing higher before giving back most of the gains. The benchmark Dec-26 futures contract rallied for four straight sessions into Wednesday, touching €84.72 intraday — its strongest level since late July and a five-week high — as it approached the psychologically important €85 resistance level. Despite a more bullish momentum, it failed to clear that level, and profit-taking plus a softer fundamental backdrop (rising German wind/solar output reducing thermal demand, and easing gas-supply risk premiums on renewed Middle East peace hopes) knocked the contract back nearly 2% on Wednesday alone. Since then, the exchange-traded market has drifted in a narrow €82–83 band on thin, below-average summer volumes. More upward pressure is expected from the end of September compliance deadline, but geopolitical uncertainty will also likely have a further role to play in the coming weeks.