Overview

After following energy markets lower on Tuesday, EUAs have once again tried to push back and been met with some resistance. Having opened at €70.29, the December 25 futures contract tried to push up to €71, before pulling back to €70.11. Soon after, the market did rally a touch despite a weak auction result (28 cents below spot), but levels stayed short of €71. Interestingly the auction today had only 8 participants (the lowest of the year so far) amid ongoing uncertainty from volatility in energy prices.

The fundamental outlook for EUAs remains split, but Macquarie this week issued a revised 2026 price forecast that was more bullish citing a likelihood of tightening conditions in 2H 2025. The Australian bank increased their 2026 EUA forecast by 5% to €95/mt.