Overview

EUA futures prices showed modest volatility within a relatively stable upward trend last week as the post-Easter period saw energy markets fallback after the US/Iran ceasefire was announced. The benchmark December 26 futures contract opened after Easter Monday in the €71s having fallen precipitously before Good Friday over fears of escalating hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz closure. Bullish sentiment over the proposed ceasefire, however, supported buyers taking the price to €73 by midweek on modest trading volumes on the exchanges. By the end of the week, EUA futures eased slightly to around €72.8, representing a small daily decline of roughly 1%. This pullback suggests mild profit-taking or short-term corrections rather than a reversal of trend.

Overall, last week was characterised by stability, limited volatility, and a slight downward adjustment at the end of the week. The market continues to move on developments from the Middle East, whilst traders wait for further news on ETS reforms which could cause a more significant shift in prices. For now, EUA futures are holding within a narrow €72–€74 band.